28th July
2009
Following Mark Buherle’s perfect game last week, the 18th perfect game in the history of the sport, there has been a discussion about how great of a pitcher Mark Buherle has been. Much of the discussion revolves around the idea that Buherle has thrown two no-hitters in his career. While no-hitters are a rare event (as any Met fan will begrudgingly tell you), typically a handful will be thrown every season. This got me thinking… why are no-hitters celebrated? AJ Burnett once threw a no-hitter but walked nine batters. Why don’t we celebrate no-walkers? At least that would put Burnett’s feat in historical context…
“Yeah… AJ has a no-hitter… but come on… Cliff Lee had seven no-walkers”
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28th July 2009
What’s truly annoying is the number of people who started bringing up talk of Buehrle for the Hall of Fame.
No. No. No.
Don’t get me wrong, having a no-hitter and a perfect game on your resume is great. But it’s not enough alone to get you to Cooperstown.
Looking at regular season perfectos does yield an impressive list of pitchers from MLB history. Cy Young. Addie Joss. Sandy Koufax. Catfish Hunter. David Cone. Randy Johnson.
Those are some good pitchers.
Looking at the list of no-hitters, however, shows lots of names that will make you think “Wait, THAT GUY threw a no-hitter? Wow…” It diminishes the achievement.
Anyhow, Baseball-Reference.com uses some metrics devised to show a player’s HOF-worthiness, and Buehrle isn’t even close. The formula uses a baseline score of 100 to denote somebody having Hall of Fame credentials, and Mark’s score is currently 36.
He’s made four All-Star teams.
He has never won a Cy Young award.
He has never finished higher than 3rd for the AL ERA title.
He has never led the league in wins.
The only “major” statistical category he has ever led in is innings pitched – twice.
Throwing a perfect game does not merit you getting into the Hall of Fame. Just ask Mike Witt and Tom Browning.
Baseball-Reference also uses a formula to display players who are statistically similar to any given player. Buehrle’s similar players (through age 29) include some pitchers who have had decent careers (Johnny Podres, Frank Viola, Tom Glavine, Bret Saberhagen, Mike Hampton), but it’s not exactly a list that gives you confidence in him reaching Cooperstown.
The topic of Buehrle’s Hall of Fame credentials is a bit premature. Only once in his career, have the baseball writers considered him a top five pitcher in his league. His only chance at making the Hall of Fame is to be a compiler. Considering at the age of 30, he already has 133 wins and is averaging 15 wins a season, it is feasible that he could make a run at 300 wins. If he does this, then he needs to be considered, however only Maddux and Moyer come to mind when I think of pitchers who lacked a dominating fastball and were able to pitch effectively into their forties.